Assuming 76 points will be enough to make the play-offs, we need a repeat of the same results from earlier this season in our remaining 10 games - not a perfect repeat, but the same points total will do nicely!
Home games to come: Wycombe W, Lincoln W, Gillingham W, Wigan L, Rotherham L giving 9 points
Away games to come: Plymouth D, Bolton W, Cheltenham D, Morecambe W, Sheff Wed D, another 9 points
Would be happy with 4 points from our two games this week!
Liking the optimism! I feel we need all 6 points this week as we probably have to overtake both Wycombe and Plymouth plus Ipswich and one out of Oxford and Sunderland as I expect Sheff Wed to finish strong and stay ahead of us, but 4pts might keep us afloat. In a 4pt scenario I think beating Wycombe is essential.
Nah. We need 6 pts this week.
We have to beat the teams above us.
Simples.
Plymouth, Sheff Wed, Wycombe.
Rotherham and Wigan? I'd take draws against those two, but if we think we should be a promotion side, its the likes of them we have to beat.
No good really beating sides below us, (Although we should be beating those sides) if the sides above us take point off us. We just wont get into the playoffs like that.
Maybe we will win every game except tonight which we draw....
Think 82 points may just about do it.
(15-03-2022, 10:20 AM)Pompey_in_Derby Wrote: [ -> ]Assuming 76 points will be enough to make the play-offs, we need a repeat of the same results from earlier this season in our remaining 10 games - not a perfect repeat, but the same points total will do nicely!
Home games to come: Wycombe W, Lincoln W, Gillingham W, Wigan L, Rotherham L giving 9 points
Away games to come: Plymouth D, Bolton W, Cheltenham D, Morecambe W, Sheff Wed D, another 9 points
Would be happy with 4 points from our two games this week!
Home games to come: Wycombe W, Lincoln W, Gillingham W, Wigan D, Rotherham W giving 13 points
Away games to come: Plymouth L, Bolton D, Cheltenham D, Morecambe W, Sheff Wed L, another 5 points
Still 18 points & will need the Home crowd in full flow!
I hate to piss on anyone's chips but the 76 point target for the play-offs is not looking relevant for this year.
Last year it would have been enough but that's because the points were spread more evenly throughout the division and the teams at the bottom took relatively more points per game out of their 46 matches each than this years bottom 4 have managed so far from their 38 matches each.
That means more of the points available throughout the season have been won further up the table and that will push the play-offs point target up. I'd guess that 6 or 7 teams will get to 80 points this time.
Given that SW4 Blues numbers are right, that’s a big task in front of Pompey !
9 games to go, 22 points needed, 7 wins and a draw (or 8 wins if your an optimist).
Possibly 6 routine games from which we should get maximum points (and improve our GD which is inferior to all those above us).
Not so routine might be Rotherham, Wigan and Wednesday, we’ll possibly need a win and a draw from the three…..and the small matter of a lot of other teams coming unstuck and not getting beyond 80 points.
I would hope our playoff hopes are still alive for our away game at Sheffield Wednesday on the last day of the season, a real test of our mettle.
On the current numbers I'd predict the bottom four this time will total 143 points at the end of the season. Last year the bottom four totalled 173. Actually it's probably worse for us this time (with the impact on where the play-off cut-off will be), as the fifth & sixth bottom this time are also woeful on their points per game, and even further adrift from last season's. Assuming the propensity to drawn games is similar then you'd expect a large proportion of those "missing" points to be soaked up by the teams at the top, hence my guess.
Anyway, fingers crossed FWIW.
SW4Blue
Given your grasp of this seasons numbers, do you think we will make the playoffs ?
(16-03-2022, 06:08 PM)SW4Blue Wrote: [ -> ]On the current numbers I'd predict the bottom four this time will total 143 points at the end of the season. Last year the bottom four totalled 173. Actually it's probably worse for us this time (with the impact on where the play-off cut-off will be), as the fifth & sixth bottom this time are also woeful on their points per game, and even further adrift from last season's. Assuming the propensity to drawn games is similar then you'd expect a large proportion of those "missing" points to be soaked up by the teams at the top, hence my guess.
Anyway, fingers crossed FWIW.
Do you not think that the bottom 4 will pick up more points as they try to escape the trap door?
The main thing is that we need to try to pick up as many points against our rivals as possible.
If I were an eternal optimist, I would say that Accrington's late equaliser last night just saved our season. There's one remaining place up for grabs and it's between us, Sheff Wed and Sun'lan.
Pass me the poppers/furniture polish.
(16-03-2022, 06:37 PM)Wightblue Wrote: [ -> ]SW4Blue
Given your grasp of this seasons numbers, do you think we will make the playoffs ?
Looking at the numbers, I'd say it's unlikely.
But the good news is, it's not just the numbers and as long as there is life there's hope.
(16-03-2022, 07:21 PM)mikey393 Wrote: [ -> ] (16-03-2022, 06:08 PM)SW4Blue Wrote: [ -> ]On the current numbers I'd predict the bottom four this time will total 143 points at the end of the season. Last year the bottom four totalled 173. Actually it's probably worse for us this time (with the impact on where the play-off cut-off will be), as the fifth & sixth bottom this time are also woeful on their points per game, and even further adrift from last season's. Assuming the propensity to drawn games is similar then you'd expect a large proportion of those "missing" points to be soaked up by the teams at the top, hence my guess.
Anyway, fingers crossed FWIW.
Do you not think that the bottom 4 will pick up more points as they try to escape the trap door?
The main thing is that we need to try to pick up as many points against our rivals as possible.
The bottom four, or more likely one or two may well do better than their current ppg average. At the same two one or two might throw in the towel and do worse. There seem to be relatively (compared to last year) so many poor teams at the foot of the table this year that I doubt that the final total points for the bottom four will get to within 20 of last years. That will have its own effect on where the play-off points total cut-off comes.
A lot of Candidates for COUNTDOWN on here tonight !
Anything to be within sniffing distance of Rachel Riley’s undies.