We can see the final ten games as a kind of mini-season.
Five home, five away and here's what would be more than enough....
Blackpool (A).......D
Burton (H)..........W
P'boro (A)...........D
Barnsley (H).........D
Wycome (H)........W
Derby (H)...........D
Shrewsb'y (H)......W
Bolton (A)............D
Wigan (H)..........W
Lincoln (A).........W
Expecting us to go unbeaten until the end of the season is asking a lot so converting one of those big games to a loss and one to a win will give about the same outcome - our wins alone would take us to 91/92 points which I'm sure would be enough.
Just one thing......I don't want us to go to Lincoln on the last day needing to win to go up - a banana skin if ever there was one. But I think Mousinho will have it sorted then. Maybe beat Bolton and then wrap things up at home against Wigan.
Let's hope for a draw between Bolton and Barnsley on Tuesday night which would bring all but P'boro into parity on games played.
Nice post. Going unbeaten will be difficult I feel. Win our home games and a win or two away should be enough. The Wycombe game should be an (A) not (H).
Would love to see us go unbeaten for the remaining 10 games, but that's a big ask.
Personally I reckon...
Blackpool (A).......D
Burton (H)..........W
P'boro (A)...........D
Barnsley (H).........L
Wycome (A)........D
Derby (H)...........D
Shrewsb'y (H)......W
Bolton (A)............D
Wigan (H)..........W
Lincoln (A).........D
So that would give us 91 points.....which would make it bloomin close. Could come down to GD!!
Barnsley have two games in hand.
Not sure what results from the other teams will suit us.
Our mission should be trying to maintain that gap by doing what we've done, so well, so far.
(03-03-2024, 08:16 AM)Trarchus Wrote: [ -> ]Barnsley have two games in hand.
Not sure what results from the other teams will suit us.
Our mission should be trying to maintain that gap by doing what we've done, so well, so far.
Yes, you're right. So not quite parity. Apart from us, the in-form team of the division. There's always one that puts together a late run but let's not write off Peterborough. Let's hope their EFL Trophy final will be a nice little distraction. Ditto for their opponents, Wycombe who we also have to play a week before the April 7th final.
(03-03-2024, 08:16 AM)Trarchus Wrote: [ -> ]Barnsley have two games in hand.
Not sure what results from the other teams will suit us.
Our mission should be trying to maintain that gap by doing what we've done, so well, so far.
Derby are 7 points behind on the same games so that's a known quantity really. It is Barnsley vs Bolton on Tuesday and they can't both get three points from that.
Bolton could win and go 4pts behind after the same number of games leaving Barnsley 10 points behind with a game in hand. Barnsley could win and go 7 behind with a game in hand or it could be a draw leaving Bolton 6 behind on same games and Barnsley 9 behind with a game in hand. I really don't know which of those results are better for us really. The draw maybe.
(03-03-2024, 08:43 AM)D'Alessandro dreaming Wrote: [ -> ] (03-03-2024, 08:16 AM)Trarchus Wrote: [ -> ]Barnsley have two games in hand.
Not sure what results from the other teams will suit us.
Our mission should be trying to maintain that gap by doing what we've done, so well, so far.
Derby are 7 points behind on the same games so that's a known quantity really. It is Barnsley vs Bolton on Tuesday and they can't both get three points from that.
Bolton could win and go 4pts behind after the same number of games leaving Barnsley 10 points behind with a game in hand. Barnsley could win and go 7 behind with a game in hand or it could be a draw leaving Bolton 6 behind on same games and Barnsley 9 behind with a game in hand. I really don't know which of those results are better for us really. The draw maybe.
Indeed, was looking at Bolton's remaining tough fixtures and thought, yeah, perhaps a Bolton win.
Barnsley's run in, much easier, are on form also.
A draw will keep that gap bigger, though.
So my conclusion was, very hard to decide, not in our hands, so let's not worry about that.
(03-03-2024, 08:43 AM)D'Alessandro dreaming Wrote: [ -> ] (03-03-2024, 08:16 AM)Trarchus Wrote: [ -> ]Barnsley have two games in hand.
Not sure what results from the other teams will suit us.
Our mission should be trying to maintain that gap by doing what we've done, so well, so far.
Derby are 7 points behind on the same games so that's a known quantity really. It is Barnsley vs Bolton on Tuesday and they can't both get three points from that.
Bolton could win and go 4pts behind after the same number of games leaving Barnsley 10 points behind with a game in hand. Barnsley could win and go 7 behind with a game in hand or it could be a draw leaving Bolton 6 behind on same games and Barnsley 9 behind with a game in hand. I really don't know which of those results are better for us really. The draw maybe.
My bwain hurts!
The only question you have to ask is are there two teams below us capable of overtaking us. Given that they mostly still have to play each other like we have to play them I just can't see that happening unless we have a dramatic loss in form again.
That is if course possible, but I can't see it happening. The key will be how we react to our next defeat and the next time the gap shrinks a bit. If no-one panics we will be ok.
I had a bet with a mate in January that we would remain top of the table all season, and I still think we will.
Should have taken that 5000 on offer from Titchy
I reckon we need 20 points from the remaining 30 available to get promoted.
6 wins from 10.
Be the 92 point mark!
It's going to be close
It's obviously down to our results in the end and so long as we actually don't lose the games against rivals, or not more than one or two max, then things look fairly good, though I find it hard to accept MostlySunny's forecasts of only three wins out of the last 10 games - perhaps he was having a mostly cloudy day. That would put us in danger. But while our fixtures are tough on paper, by my reckoning there are 11 games before the end of the season, excluding ours, involving just teams from the current top eight, and six just involving the current top six. Bolton, Derby and Barnsley won't/can't win them all. And we know from our experience as recently as last season that as well as teams having a late season surge, they can also have a late-season slump, often drawing against teams they had down as nailed-on wins. Not to mention Doncaster in 2016-17.
At this, the twitchy arse, time of the season I’m more confident of grabbing points away. If we are brave enough we get to play with more space away. At home, many turn up merely to stifle us.
(03-03-2024, 10:31 AM)bluetagagain Wrote: [ -> ]I reckon we need 20 points from the remaining 30 available to get promoted.
I reckon more like 16 or 17 will be enough. It doesn't feel like the kind of season where 96 points are required for autos. To win the title maybe.
As ever in this league, Barnsley quietly move up the league with minimum fuss. If a team finishes above them, they usually will get promoted.
Oh and Barnsley go up and then get relegated back.
(03-03-2024, 09:44 AM)DeepBlue Wrote: [ -> ]The only question you have to ask is are there two teams below us capable of overtaking us. Given that they mostly still have to play each other like we have to play them I just can't see that happening unless we have a dramatic loss in form again.
That is if course possible, but I can't see it happening. The key will be how we react to our next defeat and the next time the gap shrinks a bit. If no-one panics we will be ok.
I had a bet with a mate in January that we would remain top of the table all season, and I still think we will.
Thats absolutely right. I can't see two teams finishing above us now
We probably need 15 points to go up automatically, as I think 91 points will be enough.
Blackpool will beat us but then we need to react v Burton.
And there he is as predicted with his Blackpool will beat us. Fortunately he is consistently wrong, though by the law of averages eventually will get one right.
(04-03-2024, 10:58 AM)Hermann's_no_hermit Wrote: [ -> ]And there he is as predicted with his Blackpool will beat us. Fortunately he is consistently wrong, though by the law of averages eventually will get one right.
The broken clock that’s right twice every twenty fours, or in my parlance, coont.
Hopefully we’ll have another good ‘playless ’ Tuesday night. Looking forward to a Barnsley/ Bolton nil all draw.
(04-03-2024, 11:02 AM)Smirnoffexpress Wrote: [ -> ] (04-03-2024, 10:58 AM)Hermann's_no_hermit Wrote: [ -> ]And there he is as predicted with his Blackpool will beat us. Fortunately he is consistently wrong, though by the law of averages eventually will get one right.
The broken clock that’s right twice every twenty fours, or in my parlance, coont.
I was saving the broken clock one
The weekly dose of Ash trash has landed.
I'll take a point now but pompey are due a game of actually turning the tap on and delivering a good game and I think 0-2.
We owe them and have points in the bank. We are going to get after them and pay back a sobering game!!!
I've turned that arse TitchfieldBlue off, but can guess the drivel he's spilled!
Has he got £2k on each way?
Coont!! ??
What a W⚓️ he is