Some interesting results last night has clarified the promotion picture a little.
Sunderland look like they have choked and given Hull and Peterborough a free run to the automatics.
A win last night would have seen us looking comfortable in the group of six. Paul Cook looks to have given up on making the frame while Charlton have found a bit of form at the right time.
I think we need four wins from the final six games to be sure, the most difficult of which seems to be MK Dons on Saturday. The average for League One is 75 points for sixth place so maybe three and a draw would be enough. And the prospect of facing Sunderland in the play-offs again is looming closer....
I had been thinking 78pts but looking at remaining fixtures for Charlton maybe 76 so 3 wins 2 draws. I would make wholesale changes for MK and rest key players for Swindon and Br Rob which are must win games.
Looking at both Charlton and Oxford’s remaining fixtures (and both seem to be clicking into form at the right time) I think we will need 77 to be sure and that’s another 12 points to be won !
Swindon and Bristol Rovers look good for 6 of the needed 12 and the last game at home to Accy should be another 3.
3 points from MKD, Accy and Wimbledon away shouldn’t be too big an ask but any more performances like those against Burton and Crewe might ensure that we have to endure squeaky bum time.......and this is Pompey where the hard way seems to be the normal way.
Sunderland's defeats means they will probably be third, so we need to concentrate on getting 5th place at least.
I wouldn't fancy our chances of beating them over two games in the semis, but if we met them in the final we've got form for being able to win that.
I understand where you are coming from Deep but overhauling Blackpool and / or Lincoln is a big ask the way we are playing.
Blackpool have Home games against Sunderland, Shrewsbury, Donny and Bristol Rvrs
And Away at Rochdale, Sunderland, Northampton. I can see 12-14 points there
Lincoln have Home games against Hull, Wimbledon and Away at Bristol Rvrs, Burton, Shrewsbury, Posh and Charlton. Thats a much more difficult schedule and might only yield 9 -11 points but they do have one more point than us but do look the more likely target for us to overhaul.
My real concern is our own form being good enough to secure enough points to get to 5th especially as both Blackpool and Lincoln have better GDs than us, I think that 5th may need as many as 78 points from Pompey.
Agree about Sunderland but let’s hope we can at least be at Wembley for the Playoff Final.
TBH if we can't maintain our position with such a run-in we simply don't deserve to be there.
The Cowleys have done well to get us back in the frame but as Wightie says the omens of the last two games don't look good
one game at a time worked for the best teams of all time.
I've stopped worrying. We will probably get a play off berth, probably mess it up and probably be in the third tier next season.
If so, I shall enjoy watching another promotion campaign, enjoy watching a refreshed team under a new manager and enjoy some daft chat about pompey for yet another season.
We again.