10-04-2024, 06:08 AM
(09-04-2024, 12:31 PM)DeepBlue Wrote:(09-04-2024, 10:26 AM)TitchfieldBlue Wrote:(09-04-2024, 10:20 AM)DeepBlue Wrote:(09-04-2024, 08:42 AM)TitchfieldBlue Wrote: The maths is straightforward now.
If Pompey draw at Bolton, we would then need 2 more points to guarantee automatic promotion. If we beat Bolton, we are promoted. If we lose to Bolton, we would would need Bolton or Derby to drop points in one of their remaining games to ensure just one more Pompey win is needed for automatic promotion. Peterborough can currently reach 92 points.
Everyone keeps saying we need one win currently, which is incorrect. We currently need 4 points.
If Derby and Bolton win all their remaining games, Pompey would need 4 points from the remaining games to secure automatic promotion as just one win for us would see us relying on goal difference. You'd expect the teams below us to improve improve difference even further in the coming weeks.
Bolton or Derby dropping points in one of their remaining games would make things a lot easier for us.
I can see the following for Pompey:
Bolton - Loss
Barnsley - Draw
Wigan - Win
Lincoln - Loss
Although those predictions aren't made with much confidence.
The maths is indeed very straightforward so one wonders why you got it wrong.
If we draw at Bolton we only need one more point to guarantee promotion.
You're not very good at this are you? You made yourself look a bit silly here.
If we draw at Bolton and then get another point we are on 92 points.
Peterborough can still get to 92 points and finish above us potentially on goal difference. With their fixtures, Peterborough could win their remaining 6 matches quite easily.
To keep it simple for you, if we draw at Bolton, we would require another 2 points to confirm automatic promotion. Hope that is simple enough for you.
I'm not counting Peterborough as being in it any more with their goal difference so far behind ours.
I think you can discount Peterborough as not being in it any more by all means, but not on the basis of goal difference.
In the (let's assume) highly improbable event of us only gaining two more points from our four games AND of Peterborough winning all of their last six, it then becomes highly probable that their goal difference will be superior to ours by the end. Even if our two hypothetical defeats were each only by a single goal, and Peterborough's hypothetical six victories were each also by a single goal, that alone would cancel out our current goal difference advantage of eight. It seems unlikely that those six wins would all be by such a narrow margin. But in any case, given that they have so far scored several more goals than Pompey from two games fewer, they would also be ahead of us on goals scored.
I don't think such a scenario is at all likely. But then I don't suppose any Pompey or Doncaster Rovers supporter thought it at all likely, after the infamous Crewe match in March 2017, that we would only drop four points from our last 12 games and that Rovers would fail to win any of their last five.
As I see it, if we can at least match Derby and Bolton's results over the next two games, the title should be ours.