05-03-2024, 06:53 AM
Mini-season
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13-03-2024, 06:21 AM
(03-03-2024, 06:27 AM)Gerry Hatrick Wrote: We can see the final ten games as a kind of mini-season. Still on course for 90+ points in our mini-season. Let's not wet our panties with the possible draws coming up. Lang is back, Swanson is back, Sparkes is back and Evans comes into the frame. But every silver lining has a cloud....... ....it does mean Whyte and Martin dropping out of the squad.
Well, we are guaranteed at least 9th at this stage .
Points in the last 5 Games for the Top 9 Pompey 11 Derby 9 Bolton 8 Barnsley 10 Peterborough 12 Stevenage 8 Blackpool 10 Oxford 4 Lincoln 13
13-03-2024, 11:39 AM
Could be really important I think that Lincoln don’t need something on the last day! Unless of course we are already champions..then.. who cares!!
13-03-2024, 01:52 PM
I do like yhat Bolton next 2 games are away to Derby and Stevenage. Toughies.
Derby's next 3 are Bolton, Notthampton A and Blackpool. Not easy
13-03-2024, 02:02 PM
Should be noted that with Derby and Bolton facing each other this weekend, either they both drops point with a draw or whoever loses falls behind even further in the race for autos.
With the way our fixtures fall I think promotion could be decided before Bolton away.
13-03-2024, 04:50 PM
(13-03-2024, 11:39 AM)FiftyYearsOn Wrote: Could be really important I think that Lincoln don’t need something on the last day! Unless of course we are already champions..then.. who cares!! Sadly I don't think it's likely to be important if/that they don't require anything. The idea of being able to stop someone else achieving something or beating potential champions could be quite enough to galvanise them. Having a strong incentive to win doesn't always equate to winning.
13-03-2024, 04:54 PM
(13-03-2024, 02:02 PM)RavoPFC Wrote: Should be noted that with Derby and Bolton facing each other this weekend, either they both drops point with a draw or whoever loses falls behind even further in the race for autos. Which outcome do we reckon is most favourable? Obviously a draw reduces the number of points jointly acquired, but do we think a loss for either one would ultimately work in our favour? And which one? But in the end, it makes no difference what we think, what will be will be!
13-03-2024, 05:49 PM
(This post was last modified: 14-03-2024, 10:09 PM by bluetagagain.)
P'boro (A)...........L
Barnsley (H).........W Wycome (A)........D Derby (H)...........W Shrewsb'y (H)......W Bolton (A)............L Wigan (H)..........W Lincoln (A).........D I make that 14 points from a possible (well almost impossible) 24 points. That would give us 94 points and enough (hopefully) for promotion.
13-03-2024, 06:51 PM
Personally I think Saturday's is the hardest one left. Peterboro are in good form. If we can get a point on Saturday I can see us going to the end unbeaten and only dropping a point at Bolton and for some weird reason at home to Wycombe.
13-03-2024, 07:16 PM
If (and it's a big IF), we repeat all the results from the matches played earlier in the season, then we'll win 7 and draw 1 (Derby)!!
102 points would be fantastic!!
13-03-2024, 10:20 PM
The one thing about all of the other teams near the top they all score but they also let goals in on any kind of off day. If we can keep our decent defence going then we have a chance against everybody.
14-03-2024, 05:34 AM
We are top of the league for a reason.
14-03-2024, 07:16 AM
We're playing Wycombe away, not at home.
14-03-2024, 09:06 AM
P'boro (A)............ L
Barnsley (H).........D Wycombe (H)........W Derby (H)...........D Shrewsb'y (H)......W Bolton (A)............L Wigan (H)..........W Lincoln (A).........D 92 points. Potentially 2nd place.
14-03-2024, 05:54 PM
WYCOMBE AWAY!!!
"kin ell....
18-03-2024, 09:39 AM
I dont think many were expecting a win at Peterborough so that's helped massively.
It's looking likely now that 92 points will be enough for automatic promotion. We stumbled over Christmas so not counting the chickens yet, plenty of twists and turns yet to come. However you would hope that we can get at least 3 wins from the remaining games to probably see us over the line.
18-03-2024, 11:43 AM
Top 9 head to head fixtures remaining
29/03 Derby/Blackpool 29/03 Stevenage/Bolton 02/04 Pompey/Derby 09/04 Stevenage/Barnsley 13/04 Bolton/Pompey 13/04 Oxford/Peterborough 16/04 Oxford/Lincoln 16/04 Pompey/Barnsley 20/04 Oxford/Stevenage 27/04 Lincoln/Pompey 27/04 Peterborough/Bolton Home game against Derby on the 2nd April and the Bolton and Barnsley combination over 3 days for Pompey are probably deciding who wins the league. Points in the last 5 Games for the Top 9 (change from last week in brackets) Pompey 11 Derby 12 (+3) Bolton 8 Peterborough 12 Barnsley 8 (-2) Oxford 6 (+2) Lincoln 13 Stevenage 8 Blackpool 7 (-3) Games left for each team against teams in the top 9 Pompey 4 Derby 2 Bolton 3 Peterborough 2 Barnsley 2 Oxford 3 Lincoln 2 Stevenage 3 Blackpool 1 Games left for each team against teams in the top 9 (excluding Pompey) Derby 1 Bolton 2 Peterborough 2 Barnsley 1 Oxford 3 Lincoln 1 Stevenage 3 Blackpool 1
09-04-2024, 08:42 AM
(This post was last modified: 09-04-2024, 08:49 AM by TitchfieldBlue.)
The maths is straightforward now.
If Pompey draw at Bolton, we would then need 2 more points to guarantee automatic promotion. If we beat Bolton, we are promoted. If we lose to Bolton, we would would need Bolton or Derby to drop points in one of their remaining games to ensure just one more Pompey win is needed for automatic promotion. Peterborough can currently reach 92 points. Everyone keeps saying we need one win currently, which is incorrect. We currently need 4 points. If Derby and Bolton win all their remaining games, Pompey would need 4 points from the remaining games to secure automatic promotion as just one win for us would see us relying on goal difference. You'd expect the teams below us to improve improve difference even further in the coming weeks. Bolton or Derby dropping points in one of their remaining games would make things a lot easier for us. I can see the following for Pompey: Bolton - Loss Barnsley - Draw Wigan - Win Lincoln - Loss Although those predictions aren't made with much confidence.
09-04-2024, 10:20 AM
(09-04-2024, 08:42 AM)TitchfieldBlue Wrote: The maths is straightforward now. The maths is indeed very straightforward so one wonders why you got it wrong. If we draw at Bolton we only need one more point to guarantee promotion.
09-04-2024, 10:26 AM
(This post was last modified: 09-04-2024, 10:29 AM by TitchfieldBlue.)
(09-04-2024, 10:20 AM)DeepBlue Wrote:(09-04-2024, 08:42 AM)TitchfieldBlue Wrote: The maths is straightforward now. You're not very good at this are you? You made yourself look a bit silly here. If we draw at Bolton and then get another point we are on 92 points. Peterborough can still get to 92 points and finish above us potentially on goal difference. With their fixtures, Peterborough could win their remaining 6 matches quite easily. To keep it simple for you, if we draw at Bolton, we would require another 2 points to confirm automatic promotion. Hope that is simple enough for you.
With 5 points, we are guaranteed as champions.
There is only one unlikely combination of circumstances in which we would need 4 points to be promoted. There are two combinations of circumstances (one very unlikely) in which we would need 3 points to be promoted. Here is the definitive breakdown Played Points Points Left Max Points 1 Pompey 42 90 12 102 2 Derby 42 82 12 94 3 Bolton 42 81 12 93 4 Peterborough 40 74 18 92 Top 4 head to head fixtures remaining 13/04 Bolton/Pompey 27/04 Peterborough/Bolton To get promoted If Pompey beat Bolton we get promoted If Pompey draw with Bolton and Peterborough beat Bolton we need 2 points or 1 point and better goal difference* than Peterborough If Pompey draw with Bolton and Peterborough draw with Bolton we get promoted If Pompey draw with Bolton and Bolton beat Peterborough (and everyone else) we need 1 point or a better goal difference* than Bolton If Pompey lose to Bolton and Peterborough beat Bolton we need 3 points or 2 points and better goal difference* than Peterborough If Pompey lose to Bolton and Peterborough draw with Bolton we get promoted If Pompey lose to Bolton and Bolton beat Peterborough (and everyone else) we need 4 points or 3 points and a better goal difference* than Bolton Peterborough unlikely win streak In order for Peterborough to be in contention they must win their last six games, something they have not done in a row all season. To beat us on goal difference they can only afford one draw. They can afford no losses. It's unlikely in the extreme that Peterborough will finish above us. *Rules for when goal difference is the same. When goal difference is the same then If any two or more Clubs have scored the same number of points and have the same goal difference the higher or highest placed Club shall be the Club having scored the most goals in League Matches in that Season. If two or more Clubs have the same number of points, goal difference and goals scored the highest placed Club shall be determined by the respective League records against each other, taking into account in order of precedence, points gained, goal difference and goals scored. If the above procedures do not separate the Clubs then the highest placed Club shall be determined by reference to the following criteria, in the order prescribed: 1 number of wins; 2 goals scored in away games; or 3 in accordance with the provisions of Regulation 9.4. Regulation 9.4 Where two or more Clubs are tied after the procedures set out in Regulations 9.1 to 9.3 inclusive then the highest placed Club shall be the Club which has accumulated the lowest total number of penalty points (as determined in accordance with Regulations 9.5 and 9.6) following the completion of 42 League Matches in the relevant Season.
09-04-2024, 11:46 AM
To go back to the early posts, Whyte is actually like a new signing too now he has found his mojo.
Lang is the big one for me now, get him back and he can add that bit of energy and exeprience once more
3 capable teams that will be giving it their best shot and might well have a say in the top positions are:
Port Vale Cambridge Cheltenham
09-04-2024, 12:31 PM
(09-04-2024, 10:26 AM)TitchfieldBlue Wrote:(09-04-2024, 10:20 AM)DeepBlue Wrote:(09-04-2024, 08:42 AM)TitchfieldBlue Wrote: The maths is straightforward now. I'm not counting Peterborough as being in it any more with their goal difference so far behind ours. |
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